Publications

Google Scholar listing

    2016

  1. Becker AD, Birger RB, Teillant A, Gastanaduy PA, Wallace GS, Grenfell BT. 2016. Estimating enhanced prevaccination measles transmission hotspots in the context of cross-scale dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences U S A. Nov 21.

  2. Bharti N, Djibo A, Tatem AJ, Grenfell BT, Ferrari MJ. 2016. Measuring populations to improve vaccination coverage. Sci Rep. Oct 5; 5: 34541.

  3. Lessler J, Metcalf CJ, Cutts FT, Grenfell BT. 2016. Impact on Epidemic Measles of Vaccination Campaigns Triggered by Disease Outbreaks or Serosurveys: A Modeling Study. PLoS Medicine. Oct 11; 13(10).

  4. Gandon S, Day T, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT. 2016. Forecasting Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Infectious Diseases. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. Oct; 31(10): 776-88.

  5. Basta NE, Mahmoud AA, Wolfson J, Ploss A, Heller BL, Hanna S, Johnsen P, Izzo R, Grenfell BT, Findlow J, Bai X, Borrow R. 2016. Immunogenicity of a Meningococcal B Vaccine during a University Outbreak. New England Journal of Medicine. Jul 21;375(3):220-8.

  6. Pitzer VE, Aguas R, Riley S, Loeffen WL, Wood JL, Grenfell BT. 2016. High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. Jun;13(119).

  7. Paireau J, Chen A, Broutin H, Grenfell B, Basta NE. 2016. Seasonal dynamics of bacterial meningitis: a time-series analysis. Lancet Global Health. Jun;4(6):e370-7.

  8. Van Boeckel TP, Takahashi S, Liao Q, Xing W, Lai S, Hsiao V, Liu F, Zheng Y, Chang Z, Yuan C, Metcalf CJ, Yu H, Grenfell BT. 2016. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Critical Community Size and Spatial Vaccination Strategies. Sci Rep. Apr 29;6:25248.

  9. Metcalf CJ, Farrar J, Cutts FT, Basta NE, Graham AL, Lessler J, Ferguson NM, Burke DS, Grenfell BT. 2016. Use of serological surveys to generate key insights into the changing global landscape of infectious disease. Lancet. Aug 13;388(10045):728-30.

  10. Wu JT, Jit M, Zheng Y, Leung K, Xing W, Yang J, Liao Q, Cowling BJ, Yang B, Lau EH, Takahashi S, Farrar JJ, Grenfell BT, Leung GM, Yu H. 2016. Correction: Routine Pediatric Enterovirus 71 Vaccination in China: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. PLoS Med. Apr 6;13(4)

  11. Wu JT, Jit M, Zheng Y, Leung K, Xing W, Yang J, Liao Q, Cowling BJ, Yang B, Lau EH, Takahashi S, Farrar JJ, Grenfell BT, Leung GM, Yu H. 2016. Routine Pediatric Enterovirus 71 Vaccination in China: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis. PLoS Medicine. Mar 15;13(3).

  12. Currie J, Grenfell B, Farrar J. 2016. Infectious diseases. Beyond Ebola. Science. Feb 19;351(6275):815-6.

  13. Takahashi S, Liao Q, Van Boeckel TP, Xing W, Sun J, Hsiao VY, Metcalf CJ, Chang Z, Liu F, Zhang J, Wu JT, Cowling BJ, Leung GM, Farrar JJ, van Doorn HR, Grenfell BT, Yu H. 2016. Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Modeling Epidemic Dynamics of Enterovirus Serotypes and Implications for Vaccination. PLoS Med. Feb 16;13(2)

  14. Dalziel BD, Bjørnstad ON, van Panhuis WG, Burke DS, Metcalf CJ, Grenfell BT. Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns. 2016. PLoS Computational Biology. Feb 4;12(2)

  15. Klepac P, Megiddo I, Grenfell BT, Laxminarayan R. 2016. Self-enforcing regional vaccination agreements. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. Jan; 13(114).

     

    16. 2015

  16. C Jessica E Metcalf, M Ferrari, AL Graham, Bryan T Grenfell. 2015. Understanding Herd Immunity. Trends in Immunology. 36 (12), 753-755.

  17. Leslie A Reperant, Bryan T Grenfell, Albert DME Osterhaus. 2015. Quantifying the risk of pandemic influenza virus evolution by mutation and re-assortment. Vaccine 33 (49), 6955-6966.

  18. Sinead E Morris, Jonathan L Zelner, Deborah A Fauquier, Teresa K Rowles, Patricia E Rosel, Frances Gulland, Bryan T Grenfell. 2015. Partially observed epidemics in wildlife hosts: modelling an outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic, June 2013–2014. Journal of The Royal Society Interface 12 (112), 20150676.

  19. Ruthie B Birger, Roger D Kouyos, Ted Cohen, Emily C Griffiths, Silvie Huijben, Michael J Mina, Victoriya Volkova, Bryan Grenfell, C Jessica E Metcalf. 2015. Erratum to:‘The potential impact of coinfection on antimicrobial chemotherapy and drug resistance.’ Trends in Microbiology 23 (11), 742.

  20. Corinne N Thompson, Jonathan L Zelner, Tran Do Hoang Nhu, My VT Phan, Phuc Hoang Le, Hung Nguyen Thanh, Duong Vu Thuy, Ngoc Minh Nguyen, Tuan Ha Manh, Tu Van Hoang Minh, Vi Lu Lan, Chau Nguyen Van Vinh, Hien Tran Tinh, Emmiliese von Clemm, Harry Storch, Guy Thwaites, Bryan T Grenfell, Stephen Baker. 2015. The impact of environmental and climatic variation on the spatiotemporal trends of hospitalized pediatric diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Health & place 35, 147-154.

  21. Ruthie Birger, Roger Kouyos, Jonathan Dushoff, Bryan Grenfell. 2015. Modeling the effect of HIV coinfection on clearance and sustained virologic response during treatment for hepatitis C virus. Epidemics. 12, 1-10.

  22. Amy Wesolowski, CJE Metcalf, Nathan Eagle, Janeth Kombich, Bryan T Grenfell, Ottar N Bjørnstad, Justin Lessler, Andrew J Tatem, Caroline O Buckee. 2015. Quantifying seasonal population fluxes driving rubella transmission dynamics using mobile phone data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (35), 11114-11119.

  23. Jonathan L Zelner, Megan B Murray, Mercedes C Becerra, Jerome Galea, Leonid Lecca, Roger Calderon, Rosa Yataco, Carmen Contreras, Zibiao Zhang, Justin Manjourides, Bryan T Grenfell, Ted Cohen. 2015. Identifying hotspots of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis transmission using spatial and molecular genetic data. Journal of Infectious Diseases, jiv387.

  24. Huaiyu Tian, Sen Zhou, Lu Dong, Thomas P Van Boeckel, Yao Pei, Qizhong Wu, Wenping Yuan, Yan Guo, Shanqian Huang, Wenhuan Chen, Xueliang Lu, Zhen Liu, Yuqi Bai, Tianxiang Yue, Bryan Grenfell, Bing Xu. 2015. Climate change suggests a shift of H5N1 risk in migratory birds. Ecological Modelling 306, 6-15.

  25. CJE Metcalf, A Tatem, ON Bjornstad, J Lessler, K O’REILLY, S Takahashi, F Cutts, BT Grenfell. 2015. Transport networks and inequities in vaccination: remoteness shapes measles vaccine coverage and prospects for elimination across Africa. Epidemiology and infection 143 (07), 1457-1466.

  26. Huai-Yu Tian, Peng-Bo Yu, Angela D Luis, Peng Bi, Bernard Cazelles, Marko Laine, Shan-Qian Huang, Chao-Feng Ma, Sen Zhou, Jing Wei, Shen Li, Xiao-Ling Lu, Jian-Hui Qu, Jian-Hua Dong, Shi-Lu Tong, Jing-Jun Wang, Bryan Grenfell, Bing Xu. 2015. Changes in rodent abundance and weather conditions potentially drive hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome outbreaks in Xi’an, China, 2005–2012. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 9 (3), e0003530.

  27. Huaiyu Tian, Sen Zhou, Lu Dong, Thomas P Van Boeckel, Yujun Cui, Scott H Newman, John Y Takekawa, Diann J Prosser, Xiangming Xiao, Yarong Wu, Bernard Cazelles, Shanqian Huang, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T Grenfell, Bing Xu. 2015. Avian influenza H5N1 viral and bird migration networks in Asia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (1), 172-177.

  28. Q Caudron, AS Mahmud, CJE Metcalf, M Gottfreðsson, C Viboud, AD Cliff, BT Grenfell. 2015. Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations. Journal of The Royal Society Interface. 12 (102), 20141125.

  29. Geoghegan J.L., Tan L.V., Kühnert D., Halpin R.A., Lin X., Simenauer A., Akopov A., Das S.R., Stockwell T.B., Shrivastava S., Ngoc N.M., Uyen L.T., Tuyen N.T., Thanh T.T., Hang V.T., Qui P.T., Hung N.T., Khanh T.H., Thinh L.Q., Nhan L.N., Van H.M., Viet D.C., Tuan H.M., Viet H.L., Hien T.T., Chau N.V., Thwaites G., Grenfell B.T., Stadler T, Wentworth DE, Holmes EC, Van Doorn HR. 2015. Phylodynamics of Enterovirus A71-Associated Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease in Viet Nam. Journal of Virology. JVI.00706-15.

  30. Birger R.B., Kouyos R.D., Cohen T., Griffiths E.C., Huijben S., Mina M., Volkova V., Grenfell B.T., Metcalf C.J. 2015. The potential impact of coinfection on antimicrobial chemotherapy and drug resistance. 2015. Trends in Microbiology. Sep;23(9):537-44.

  31. Faust C., Zelner J., Brasseur P., Vaillant M., Badiane M., Cisse M., Grenfell B.T., Olliaro P. 2015. Assessing Drivers of Full Adoption of Test and Treat Policy for Malaria in Senegal. The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 93 (1), 159-167.

  32. Mina M.J., Metcalf C.J., de Swart R.L., Osterhaus A.D., Grenfell B.T. 2015 Vaccines. Long-term measles- induced immunomodulation increases overall childhood infectious disease mortality. Science. May 8; 348(6235):694-9.

  33. Metcalf C.J., Andreasen V., Bjornstad O.N., Eames K., Edmunds W.J., Funk S., Hollingworth T.D., Lessler J., Viboud C., Grenfell B.T. 2015. Seven challenges in modelling vaccine preventable diseases. Epidemics. Mar;10:11-5.

  34. Van Boeckel T.P., Brower C., Gilbert M., Grenfell B.T., Levin S.A., Robinson T.P., Teillant A., Laxminarayan R. 2015. Global trends in antimicrobial use in food animals. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. May 5;112(18):5649-54.

  35. Takahashi S., Metcalf C.J., Ferrari M.J., Moss W.J., Truelove S.A., Tatem A.J., Grenfell B.T., Lessler J. 2015. Reduced vaccination and the risk of measles and other childhood infections post-Ebola. Science. Mar 13;347(6227):1240-2

  36. Perkins T.A., Metcalf C.J., Grenfell B.T., Tatem A.J. 2015. Estimating drivers of autochthonous transmission of chikungunya virus in its invasion of the americas. PLoS Curr. Feb 10;7.

  37. Morris S.E., Pitzer V.E., Viboud C., Metcalf C.J., Bjornstad O.N., Grenfell B.T. 2015. Demographic buffering: titrating the effects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics. J R Soc Interface. Mar 6;12(104):20141245. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2014.1245.

  38. Pitzer V.E., Viboud C., Alonso W.J., Wilcox T., Metcalf C.J., Steiner C.A., Haynes A.K., Grenfell B.T. 2015 . Environmental drivers of the spatiotemporal dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus in the United States. Jan 8;11(1):e1004591.

    39. 2014

  39. Huaiyu Tian, Sen Zhou, Lu Dong, Thomas P Van Boeckel, Yujun Cui, Scott H Newman, John Y Takekawa, Diann J Prosser, Xiangming Xiao, Yarong Wu, Bernard Cazelles, Shanqian Huang, Ruifu Yang, Bryan T Grenfell, Bing Xu. 2014. Avian influenza H5N1 viral and bird migration networks in Asia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA. vol 112: 172.

  40. Pitzer, V. E., C. C. Bowles, S. Baker, G. Kang, V. Balaji, J. J. Farrar, and B. T. Grenfell. 2014. Predicting the impact of vaccination on the transmission dynamics of typhoid in South Asia: a mathematical modeling study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 8:e2642.

  41. Birger, R. B., T. B. Hallett, A. Sinha, B. T. Grenfell, and S. L. Hodder. 2014. Modeling the impact of interventions along the HIV continuum of care in Newark, New Jersey. Clin Infect Dis 58:274-284.

  42. Zelner, J. L., M. B. Murray, M. C. Becerra, J. Galea, L. Lecca, R. Calderon, R. Yataco, C. Contreras, Z. Zhang, B. T. Grenfell, and T. Cohen. 2014. Bacillus calmette-guerin and isoniazid preventive therapy protect contacts of patients with tuberculosis. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 189:853-859.

  43. Xiao, H., H. Y. Tian, L. D. Gao, H. N. Liu, L. S. Duan, N. Basta, B. Cazelles, X. J. Li, X. L. Lin, H. W. Wu, B. Y. Chen, H. S. Yang, B. Xu, and B. Grenfell. 2014. Animal reservoir, natural and socioeconomic variations and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Chenzhou, China, 2006-2010. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 8:e2615.

    44. 2013

  44. Ferrari, M. J., B. T. Grenfell, and P. M. Strebel. 2013. Think globally, act locally: the role of local demographics and vaccination coverage in the dynamic response of measles infection to control. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 368:20120141.

  45. Metcalf, C. J., K. Hampson, A. J. Tatem, B. T. Grenfell, and O. N. Bjornstad. 2013. Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough. PLoS One 8:e74696.

  46. Zelner, J. L., B. A. Lopman, A. J. Hall, S. Ballesteros, and B. T. Grenfell. 2013. Linking time-varying symptomatology and intensity of infectiousness to patterns of norovirus transmission. PLoS One 8:e68413.

  47. Stack, J. C., P. R. Murcia, B. T. Grenfell, J. L. Wood, and E. C. Holmes. 2013. Inferring the inter-host transmission of influenza A virus using patterns of intra-host genetic variation. Proc Biol Sci 280:20122173.

  48. Metcalf, C. J., C. Cohen, J. Lessler, J. M. McAnerney, G. M. Ntshoe, A. Puren, P. Klepac, A. Tatem, B. T. Grenfell, and O. N. Bjornstad. 2013. Implications of spatially heterogeneous vaccination coverage for the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in South Africa. J R Soc Interface 10:20120756.

  49. Dorelien, A. M., S. Ballesteros, and B. T. Grenfell. 2013. Impact of birth seasonality on dynamics of acute immunizing infections in Sub-Saharan Africa. PLoS One 8:e75806.

  50. Kouyos, R., E. Klein, and B. Grenfell. 2013. Hospital-community interactions foster coexistence between methicillin-resistant strains of Staphylococcus aureus. PLoS Pathog 9:e1003134.

  51. Murcia, P. R., G. J. Baillie, J. C. Stack, C. Jervis, D. Elton, J. A. Mumford, J. Daly, P. Kellam, B. T. Grenfell, E. C. Holmes, and J. L. Wood. 2013. Evolution of equine influenza virus in vaccinated horses. J Virol 87:4768-4771.

  52. Pepin, K. M., S. Riley, and B. T. Grenfell. 2013. Effects of influenza antivirals on individual and population immunity over many epidemic waves. Epidemiol Infect 141:366-376.

  53. Rozhnova, G., C. J. Metcalf, and B. T. Grenfell. 2013. Characterizing the dynamics of rubella relative to measles: the role of stochasticity. J R Soc Interface 10:20130643.

    54. 2012

  54. Azman, A. S., F. J. Luquero, A. Rodrigues, P. P. Palma, R. F. Grais, C. N. Banga, B. T. Grenfell, and J. Lessler. 2012. Urban cholera transmission hotspots and their implications for reactive vaccination: evidence from Bissau city, Guinea bissau. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6:e1901.

  55. Lopman, B. A., V. E. Pitzer, R. Sarkar, B. Gladstone, M. Patel, J. Glasser, M. Gambhir, C. Atchison, B. T. Grenfell, W. J. Edmunds, G. Kang, and U. D. Parashar. 2012. Understanding reduced rotavirus vaccine efficacy in low socio-economic settings. PLoS One 7:e41720.

  56. Metcalf, C. J., J. Lessler, P. Klepac, A. Morice, B. T. Grenfell, and O. N. Bjornstad. 2012. Structured models of infectious disease: inference with discrete data. Theor Popul Biol 82:275-282.

  57. Bharti, N., H. Broutin, R. F. Grais, M. J. Ferrari, A. Djibo, A. J. Tatem, and B. T. Grenfell. 2012. Spatial dynamics of meningococcal meningitis in Niger: observed patterns in comparison with measles. Epidemiol Infect 140:1356-1365.

  58. Arinaminpathy, N., J. S. Lavine, and B. T. Grenfell. 2012. Self-boosting vaccines and their implications for herd immunity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109:20154-20159.

  59. Cutts, F. T., C. J. Metcalf, J. Lessler, and B. T. Grenfell. 2012. Rubella vaccination: must not be business as usual. Lancet 380(9838):217-218.

  60. Saenz, R. A., S. C. Essen, S. M. Brookes, M. Iqbal, J. L. Wood, B. T. Grenfell, J. W. McCauley, I. H. Brown, and J. R. Gog. 2012. Quantifying transmission of highly pathogenic and low pathogenicity H7N1 avian influenza in turkeys. PLoS One 7:e45059.

  61. Lin, W. H., R. D. Kouyos, R. J. Adams, B. T. Grenfell, and D. E. Griffin. 2012. Prolonged persistence of measles virus RNA is characteristic of primary infection dynamics. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 109:14989- 14994.

  62. Klepac, P., O. N. Bjornstad, C. J. Metcalf, and B. T. Grenfell. 2012. Optimizing reactive responses to outbreaks of immunizing infections: balancing case management and vaccination. PLoS One 7:e41428.

  63. Lessler, J., C. J. Metcalf, and B. T. Grenfell. 2012. Measurement of vaccine-derived immunity: how do we use all the data? Expert Rev Vaccines 11:747-749.

  64. Reperant, L. A., T. Kuiken, B. T. Grenfell, A. D. Osterhaus, and A. P. Dobson. 2012. Linking influenza virus tissue tropism to population-level reproductive fitness. PLoS One 7:e43115.

  65. Stack, J. C., S. Bansal, V. S. Kumar, and B. Grenfell. 2012. Inferring population-level contact heterogeneity from common epidemic data. J R Soc Interface

  66. Arinaminpathy, N., O. Ratmann, K. Koelle, S. L. Epstein, G. E. Price, C. Viboud, M. A. Miller, and B. T. Grenfell. 2012. Impact of cross-protective vaccines on epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 109:3173-3177.

  67. Metcalf, C. J., J. Lessler, P. Klepac, F. Cutts, and B. T. Grenfell. 2012. Impact of birth rate, seasonality and transmission rate on minimum levels of coverage needed for rubella vaccination. Epidemiol Infect 140:2290-2301.

  68. Murcia, P. R., J. Hughes, P. Battista, L. Lloyd, G. J. Baillie, R. H. Ramirez-Gonzalez, D. Ormond, K. Oliver, D. Elton, J. A. Mumford, M. Caccamo, P. Kellam, B. T. Grenfell, E. C. Holmes, and J. L. N. Wood. 2012. Evolution of an Eurasian Avian-like Influenza Virus in Naive and Vaccinated Pigs. Plos Pathog 8:ARTN e1002730.

  69. Pitzer, V. E., K. E. Atkins, B. F. de Blasio, T. Van Effelterre, C. J. Atchison, J. P. Harris, E. Shim, A. P. Galvani, W. J. Edmunds, C. Viboud, M. M. Patel, B. T. Grenfell, U. D. Parashar, and B. A. Lopman. 2012. Direct and indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination: comparing predictions from transmission dynamic models. PLoS One 7:e42320.

    70. 2011

  70. Metcalf, C. J., O. N. Bjornstad, M. J. Ferrari, P. Klepac, N. Bharti, H. Lopez-Gatell, and B. T. Grenfell. 2011. The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation. Epidemiol Infect 1-10.

  71. Metcalf, C. J., O. N. Bjornstad, M. J. Ferrari, P. Klepac, N. Bharti, H. Lopez-Gatell, and B. T. Grenfell. 2011. The epidemiology of rubella in Mexico: seasonality, stochasticity and regional variation. Epidemiol Infect 139:1029-1038.

  72. Klepac, P., R. Laxminarayan, and B. T. Grenfell. 2011. Synthesizing epidemiological and economic optima for control of immunizing infections. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 108:14366-14370.

  73. Metcalf, C. J., C. V. Munayco, G. Chowell, B. T. Grenfell, and O. N. Bjornstad. 2011. Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru. J R Soc Interface 8:369-376.

  74. Metcalf, C. J., A. L. Graham, S. Huijben, V. C. Barclay, G. H. Long, B. T. Grenfell, A. F. Read, and O. N. Bjornstad. 2011. Partitioning Regulatory Mechanisms of Within-Host Malaria Dynamics Using the Effective Propagation Number. Science 333:984-988.

  75. Metcalf, C. J., P. Klepac, M. Ferrari, R. F. Grais, A. Djibo, and B. T. Grenfell. 2011. Modelling the first dose of measles vaccination: the role of maternal immunity, demographic factors, and delivery systems. Epidemiol Infect 139:265-274.

  76. Pitzer, V. E., M. M. Patel, B. A. Lopman, C. Viboud, U. D. Parashar, and B. T. Grenfell. 2011. Modeling rotavirus strain dynamics in developed countries to understand the potential impact of vaccination on genotype distributions. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 108:19353-19358.

  77. Lessler, J., C. J. E. Metcalf, R. F. Grais, F. J. Luquero, D. A. T. Cummings, and B. T. Grenfell. 2011. Measuring the Performance of Vaccination Programs Using Cross-Sectional Surveys: A Likelihood Framework and Retrospective Analysis. Plos Med 8:ARTN e1001110.

  78. Pitzer, V. E., C. Viboud, B. A. Lopman, M. M. Patel, U. D. Parashar, and B. T. Grenfell. 2011. Influence of birth rates and transmission rates on the global seasonality of rotavirus incidence. J R Soc Interface 8:1584- 1593.

  79. Bharti, N., A. J. Tatem, M. J. Ferrari, R. F. Grais, A. Djibo, and B. T. Grenfell. 2011. Explaining Seasonal Fluctuations of Measles in Niger Using Nighttime Lights Imagery. Science 334:1424-1427.

  80. Grenfell, B. T. 2011. Boosting understanding of pertussis outbreaks. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 108:7279-7280.

    81. 2010

  81. Bansal, S., B. Pourbohloul, N. Hupert, B. T. Grenfell, and L. A. Meyers. 2010. The Shifting Demographic Landscape of Pandemic Influenza. Plos One 5:ARTN e9360.

  82. Volkov, I., K. M. Pepin, J. O. Lloyd-Smith, J. R. Banavar, and B. T. Grenfell. 2010. Synthesizing within- host and population-level selective pressures on viral populations: the impact of adaptive immunity on viral immune escape. J R Soc Interface 7:1311-1318.

  83. Ferrari, M. J., A. Djibo, R. F. Grais, N. Bharti, B. T. Grenfell, and O. N. Bjornstad. 2010. Rural-urban gradient in seasonal forcing of measles transmission in Niger. P Roy Soc B-biol Sci 277:2775-2782.

  84. Metcalf, C. J., C. V. Munayco, G. Chowell, B. T. Grenfell, and O. N. Bjornstad. 2010. Rubella metapopulation dynamics and importance of spatial coupling to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome in Peru. J R Soc Interface

  85. Conlan, A. J. K., P. Rohani, A. L. Lloyd, M. Keeling, and B. T. Grenfell. 2010. Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles. J R Soc Interface 7:623-640.

  86. Stack, J. C., J. D. Welch, M. J. Ferrari, B. U. Shapiro, and B. T. Grenfell. 2010. Protocols for sampling viral sequences to study epidemic dynamics. J R Soc Interface 7:1119-1127.

  87. Pepin, K. M., I. Volkov, J. R. Banavar, C. O. Wilke, and B. T. Grenfell. 2010. Phenotypic differences in viral immune escape explained by linking within-host dynamics to host-population immunity. J Theor Biol 265:501-510.

  88. Bharti, N., A. Djibo, M. J. Ferrari, R. F. Grais, A. J. Tatem, C. A. McCabe, O. N. Bjornstad, and B. T. Grenfell. 2010. Measles hotspots and epidemiological connectivity. Epidemiol Infect 138:1308-1316.

  89. Murcia, P. R., G. J. Baillie, J. Daly, D. Elton, C. Jervis, J. A. Mumford, R. Newton, C. R. Parrish, K. Hoelzer, G. Dougan, J. Parkhill, N. Lennard, D. Ormond, S. Moule, A. Whitwham, J. W. McCauley, T. J. McKinley, E. C. Holmes, B. T. Grenfell, and J. L. N. Wood. 2010. Intra- and Interhost Evolutionary Dynamics of Equine Influenza Virus. J Virol 84:6943-6954.

  90. Deardon, R., S. P. Brooks, B. T. Grenfell, M. J. Keeling, M. J. Tildesley, N. J. Savill, D. J. Shaw, and M. E. J. Woolhouse. 2010. Inference for individual-leve models of infectious diseases in large populations. Stat Sinica 20:239-261.

  91. Broutin, H., C. Viboud, B. T. Grenfell, M. A. Miller, and P. Rohani. 2010. Impact of vaccination and birth rate on the epidemiology of pertussis: a comparative study in 64 countries. P Roy Soc B-biol Sci 277:3239- 3245.

  92. Ferrari, M. J., A. Djibo, R. F. Grais, B. T. Grenfell, and O. N. Bjornstad. 2010. Episodic outbreaks bias estimates of age-specific force of infection: a corrected method using measles as an example. Epidemiol Infect 138:108-116.

  93. Saenz, R. A., M. Quinlivan, D. Elton, S. MacRae, A. S. Blunden, J. A. Mumford, J. M. Daly, P. Digard, A. Cullinane, B. T. Grenfell, J. W. McCauley, J. L. N. Wood, and J. R. Gog. 2010. Dynamics of Influenza Virus Infection and Pathology. J Virol 84:3974-3983.

  94. Arinaminpathy, N., and B. T. Grenfell. 2010. Dynamics of Glycoprotein Charge in the Evolutionary History of Human Influenza. Plos One 5:ARTN e15674.

  95. Christensen, C., I. Albert, B. T. Grenfell, and R. Albert. 2010. Disease dynamics in a dynamic social network. Physica A 389:2663-2674.

  96. Mantilla-Beniers, N. B., O. N. Bjornstad, B. T. Grenfell, and P. Rohani. 2010. Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics. J R Soc Interface 7:727-739.

  97. Shaman, J., V. E. Pitzer, C. Viboud, B. T. Grenfell, and M. Lipsitch. 2010. Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States. Plos Biol 8:ARTN e1000316.

    98. 2009

  98. Metcalf, C. J. E., O. N. Bjornstad, B. T. Grenfell, and V. Andreasen. 2009. Seasonality and comparative dynamics of six childhood infections in pre-vaccination Copenhagen. P R Soc B 276:4111-4118.

  99. Park, A. W., J. M. Daly, N. S. Lewis, D. J. Smith, J. L. N. Wood, and B. T. Grenfell. 2009. Quantifying the Impact of Immune Escape on Transmission Dynamics of Influenza. Science 326:726-728.

  100. Lloyd-Smith, J. O., D. George, K. M. Pepin, V. E. Pitzer, J. R. C. Pulliam, A. P. Dobson, P. J. Hudson, and B. T. Grenfell. 2009. Epidemic Dynamics at the Human-Animal Interface. Science 326:1362-1367.

  101. Holmes, E. C., and B. T. Grenfell. 2009. Discovering the Phylodynamics of RNA Viruses. Plos Comput Biol 5:ARTN e1000505.

  102. Pitzer, V. E., C. Viboud, L. Simonsen, C. Steiner, C. A. Panozzo, W. J. Alonso, M. A. Miller, R. I. Glass, J. W. Glasser, U. D. Parashar, and B. T. Grenfell. 2009. Demographic Variability, Vaccination, and the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rotavirus Epidemics. Science 325:290-294.

    103. 2008

  103. Grais, R. F., A. J. K. Conlan, M. J. Ferrari, A. Djibo, M. Le, A, O. N. Bjornstad, and B. T. Grenfell. 2008. Time is of the essence: exploring a measles outbreak response vaccination in Niamey, Niger. J R Soc Interface 5:67-74.

  104. Ferrari, M. J., R. F. Grais, N. Bharti, A. J. K. Conlan, O. N. Bjornstad, L. J. Wolfson, P. J. Guerin, A. Djibo, and B. T. Grenfell. 2008. The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature 451:679-684.

  105. Bharti, N., Y. C. Xia, O. N. Bjornstad, and B. T. Grenfell. 2008. Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics. Plos One 3:ARTN e1941.

  106. Lloyd-Smith, J. O., M. Poss, and B. T. Grenfell. 2008. HIV-1/parasite co-infection and the emergence of new parasite strains. Parasitology 135:795-806.

  107. Bjornstad, O. N., and B. T. Grenfell. 2008. Hazards, spatial transmission and timing of outbreaks in epidemic metapopulations. Environ Ecol Stat 15:265-277.

  108. Lavine, J. S., M. Poss, and B. T. Grenfell. 2008. Directly transmitted viral diseases: modeling the dynamics of transmission. Trends Microbiol 16:165-172.

  109. Tildesley, M. J., R. Deardon, N. J. Savill, P. R. Bessell, S. P. Brooks, M. E. J. Woolhouse, B. T. Grenfell, and M. J. Keeling. 2008. Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic. P R Soc B 275:1459- 1468.

    110. 2007

  110. Bansal, S., B. T. Grenfell, and L. A. Meyers. 2007. When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology. J R Soc Interface 4:879-891.

  111. Tildesley, M. J., N. J. Savill, D. J. Shaw, R. Deardon, S. P. Brooks, M. E. J. Woolhouse, B. T. Grenfell, and M. J. Keeling. 2007. Vaccination strategies for foot-and-mouth disease – Reply. Nature 445:E12-E13.

  112. Restif, O., and B. T. Grenfell. 2007. Vaccination and the dynamics of immune evasion. J R Soc Interface 4:143-153.

  113. Simonsen, L., C. Viboud, B. T. Grenfell, J. Dushoff, L. Jennings, M. Smit, C. Macken, M. Hata, J. Gog, M. A. Miller, and E. C. Holmes. 2007. The genesis and spread of reassortment human influenza A/H3N2 viruses conferring adamantane resistance. Mol Biol Evol 24:1811-1820.

  114. Conlan, A. J. K., and B. T. Grenfell. 2007. Seasonality and the persistence and invasion of measles. P R Soc B 274:1133-1141.

  115. Finkelman, B. S., C. Viboud, K. Koelle, M. J. Ferrari, N. Bharti, and B. T. Grenfell. 2007. Global Patterns in Seasonal Activity of Influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B from 1997 to 2005: Viral Coexistence and Latitudinal Gradients. Plos One 2:ARTN e1296.

  116. Savill, N. J., D. J. Shaw, R. Deardon, M. J. Tildesley, M. J. Keeling, M. E. J. Woolhouse, S. P. Brooks, and B. T. Grenfell. 2007. Effect of data quality on estimates of farm infectiousness trends in the UK 2001 foot- and-mouth disease epidemic. J R Soc Interface 4:235-241.

  117. Lloyd-Smith, J. O., D. J. Greig, S. Hietala, G. S. Ghneim, L. Palmer, L. St, J, B. T. Grenfell, and F. M. Gulland. 2007. Cyclical changes in seroprevalence of leptospirosis in California sea lions: endemic and epidemic disease in one host species? Bmc Infect Dis 7:ARTN 125.

  118. Viboud, C., M. A. Miller, B. T. Grenfell, O. N. Bjornstad, and L. Simonsen. 2007. Air travel and the spread of influenza: Important caveats (vol 3, pg 0, 2007). Plos Med 4:198-198.

    119. 2006

  119. Viboud, C., O. N. Bjornstad, D. L. Smith, L. Simonsen, M. A. Miller, and B. T. Grenfell. 2006. Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science 312:447-451.

  120. Nelson, M. I., L. Simonsen, C. Viboud, M. A. Miller, J. Taylor, K. S. George, S. B. Griesemer, E. Ghedi, N. A. Sengamalay, D. J. Spiro, I. Volkov, B. T. Grenfell, D. J. Lipman, J. K. Taubenberger, and E. C. Holmes. 2006. Stochastic processes are key determinants of short-term evolution in influenza A virus. Plos Pathog 2:1144-1151.

  121. Grenfell, B. T., C. S. Williams, O. N. Bjornstad, and J. R. Banavar. 2006. Simplifying biological complexity. Nat Phys 2:212-214.

  122. Tildesley, M. J., N. J. Savill, D. J. Shaw, R. Deardon, S. P. Brooks, M. E. J. Woolhouse, B. T. Grenfell, and M. J. Keeling. 2006. Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440:83-86.

  123. Howat, T. J., C. Barreca, P. O’Hare, J. R. Gog, and B. T. Grenfell. 2006. Modelling dynamics of the type I interferon response to in vitro viral infection. J R Soc Interface 3:699-709.

  124. Brown, S. P., S. J. Cornell, M. Sheppard, A. J. Grant, D. J. Maskell, B. T. Grenfell, and P. Mastroeni. 2006. Intracellular demography and the dynamics of Salmonella enterica infections. Plos Biol 4:2091-2098.

  125. Restif, O., and B. T. Grenfell. 2006. Integrating life history and cross-immunity into the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens. P R Soc B 273:409-416.

  126. Kuiken, T., E. C. Holmes, J. McCauley, G. F. Rimmelzwaan, C. S. Williams, and B. T. Grenfell. 2006. Host species barriers to influenza virus infections. Science 312:394-397.

  127. Keeling, M., M. Tildesley, N. Savill, M. Woolhouse, D. Shaw, R. Deardon, S. Brooks, and B. T. Grenfell. 2006. FMD control strategies – Comment. Vet Rec 158:707-708.

  128. Grais, R. F., M. J. Ferrari, C. Dubray, O. N. Bjornstad, B. T. Grenfell, A. Djibo, F. Fermon, and P. J. Guerin. 2006. Estimating transmission intensity for a measles epidemic in Niamey, Niger: lessons for intervention. T Roy Soc Trop Med H 100:867-873.

  129. Koelle, K., S. Cobey, B. T. Grenfell, and M. Pascual. 2006. Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans. Science 314:1898-1903.

  130. Grais, R. F., A. C. Conlan, M. J. Ferrari, A. Djibo, F. Fermon, P. J. Guerin, C. Dubray, O. N. Bjornstad, and B. T. Grenfell. 2006. Emergency vaccination responses during large measles outbreaks: Early intervention leads to a high proportion of averted cases. Am J Trop Med Hyg 75:191-191.

  131. Viboud, C., M. A. Miller, B. T. Grenfell, O. N. Bjornstad, and L. Simonsen. 2006. Air travel and the spread of influenza: Important caveats. Plos Med 3:2159-2168.

    132. 2005

  132. Holmes, E. C., E. Ghedin, N. Miller, J. Taylor, Y. M. Bao, G. St, K, B. T. Grenfell, S. L. Salzberg, C. M. Fraser, D. J. Lipman, and J. K. Taubenberger. 2005. Whole-genome analysis of human influenza A virus reveals multiple persistent lineages and reassortment among recent H3N2 viruses. Plos Biol 3:1579-1589.

  133. Grenfell, B. T., and O. Bjrnstad. 2005. Sexually transmitted diseases – Epidemic cycling and immunity. Nature 433:366-367.

  134. Xia, Y. C., J. R. Gog, and B. T. Grenfell. 2005. Semiparametric estimation of the duration of immunity from infectious disease time series: influenza as a case-study. J Roy Stat Soc C-app 54:659-672.

  135. Holmes, E. C., J. K. Taubenberger, and B. T. Grenfell. 2005. Heading off an influenza pandemic. Science 309:989-989.

  136. Broutin, H., N. B. Mantilla-Beniers, F. Simondon, P. Aaby, B. T. Grenfell, J. F. Guegan, and P. Rohani. 2005. Epidemiological impact of vaccination on the dynamics of two childhood diseases in rural Senegal. Microbes Infect 7:593-599.

    137. 2004

  137. Hallett, T. B., T. Coulson, J. G. Pilkington, T. H. Clutton-Brock, J. M. Pemberton, and B. T. Grenfell. 2004. Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather. Nature 430:71-75.

  138. Glass, K., and B. T. Grenfell. 2004. Waning immunity and subclinical measles infections in England and Wales. Vaccine 22:4110-4116.

  139. Grenfell, B. T., O. G. Pybus, J. R. Gog, J. L. N. Wood, J. M. Daly, J. A. Mumford, and E. C. Holmes. 2004. Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens. Science 303:327-332.

  140. Park, A. W., J. L. N. Wood, J. M. Daly, J. R. Newton, K. Glass, W. Henley, J. A. Mumford, and B. T. Grenfell. 2004. The effects of strain heterology on the epidemiology of equine influenza in a vaccinated population. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 271:1547-1555.

  141. Glass, K., J. Kappey, and B. T. Grenfell. 2004. The effect of heterogeneity in measles vaccination on population immunity. Epidemiol Infect 132:675-683.

  142. Cornell, S. J., V. S. Isham, and B. T. Grenfell. 2004. Stochastic and spatial dynamics of nematode parasites in farmed ruminants. P R Soc B 271:1243-1250.

  143. Stenseth, N. C., K. S. Chan, G. Tavecchia, T. Coulson, A. Mysterud, T. Clutton-Brock, and B. T. Grenfell. 2004. Modelling non-additive and nonlinear signals from climatic noise in ecological time series: Soay sheep as an example. P R Soc B 271:1985-1993.

  144. Xia, Y. C., O. N. Bjornstad, and B. T. Grenfell. 2004. Measles metapopulation dynamics: A gravity model for epidemiological coupling and dynamics. Am Nat 164:267-281.

  145. Broutin, H., F. Simondon, P. Rohani, J. F. Guegan, and B. T. Grenfell. 2004. Loss of immunity to pertussis in a rural community in Senegal. Vaccine 22:594-596.

  146. Braisher, T. L., N. J. Gemmell, B. T. Grenfell, and W. Amos. 2004. Host isolation and patterns of genetic variability in three populations of Teladorsagia from sheep. Int J Parasitol 34:1197-1204.

    147. 2003

  147. Cornell, S. J., V. S. Isham, G. Smith, and B. T. Grenfell. 2003. Spatial parasite transmission, drug resistance, and the spread of rare genes. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 100:7401-7405.

  148. Gog, J. R., G. F. Rimmelzwaan, A. D. M. E. Osterhaus, and B. T. Grenfell. 2003. Population dynamics of rapid fixation in cytotoxic T lymphocyte escape mutants of influenza A. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 100:11143- 11147.

  149. Ferguson, N. M., M. J. Keeling, W. J. Edmunds, R. Gant, B. T. Grenfell, R. M. Amderson, and S. Leach. 2003. Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 425:681-685.

  150. Park, A. W., J. L. N. Wood, J. R. Newton, J. Daly, J. A. Mumford, and B. T. Grenfell. 2003. Optimising vaccination strategies in equine influenza. Vaccine 21:2862-2870.

  151. Keeling, M. J., M. E. J. Woolhouse, R. M. May, G. Davies, and B. T. Grenfell. 2003. Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease. Nature 421:136-142.

  152. Ovaskainen, O. T., and B. T. Grenfell. 2003. Mathematical tools for planning effective intervention scenarios for sexually transmitted diseases. Sex Transm Dis 30:388-394.

  153. Glass, K., Y. Xia, and B. T. Grenfell. 2003. Interpreting time-series analyses for continuous-time biological models-measles as a case study. J Theor Biol 223:19-25.

  154. Rohani, P., C. J. Green, N. B. Mantilla-Beniers, and B. T. Grenfell. 2003. Ecological interference between fatal diseases. Nature 422:885-888.

  155. Glass, K., and B. T. Grenfell. 2003. Antibody dynamics in childhood diseases: Waning and boosting of immunity and the impact of vaccination. J Theor Biol 221:121-131.

  156. Leung, B., and B. T. Grenfell. 2003. A spatial stochastic model simulating a scabies epidemic and coyote population dynamics. Ecol Model 166:41-52.

    157. 2002

  157. Keeling, M. J., and B. T. Grenfell. 2002. Understanding the persistence of measles: reconciling theory, simulation and observation. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 269:335-343.

  158. Hudson, P. J., A. P. Dobson, I. M. Cattadori, D. Newborn, D. T. Haydon, D. J. Shaw, T. G. Benton, and B. T. Grenfell. 2002. Trophic interactions and population growth rates: describing patterns and identifying mechanisms. Philos T Roy Soc B 357:1259-1271.

  159. Rohani, P., M. J. Keeling, and B. T. Grenfell. 2002. The interplay between determinism and stochasticity in childhood diseases. Am Nat 159:469-481.

  160. Grenfell, B. T. 2002. Rivers dam waves of rabies. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 99:3365-3367.

  161. Glass, K., J. L. N. Wood, J. A. Mumford, D. Jesset, and B. T. Grenfell. 2002. Modelling equine influenza 1: a stochastic model of within-yard epidemics. Epidemiol Infect 128:491-502.

  162. Grenfell, B. T., O. N. Bjornstad, and B. F. Finkenstadt. 2002. Dynamics of measles epidemics: Scaling noise, determinism, and predictability with the TSIR model. Ecol Monogr 72:185-202.

  163. Bjornstad, O. N., B. F. Finkenstadt, and B. T. Grenfell. 2002. Dynamics of measles epidemics: Estimating scaling of transmission rates using a Time series SIR model. Ecol Monogr 72:169-184.

  164. Gog, J. R., and B. T. Grenfell. 2002. Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 99:17209-17214.

  165. Brown, S. P., M. E. Hochberg, and B. T. Grenfell. 2002. Does multiple infection select for raised virulence? Trends Microbiol 10:401-405.

  166. Finkenstadt, B. F., O. N. Bjornstad, and B. T. Grenfell. 2002. A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks. Biostatistics 3:493-510.

    167. 2001

  167. Grenfell, B. T., O. N. Bjornstad, and J. Kappey. 2001. Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature 414:716-723.

  168. Keeling, M. J., P. Rohani, and B. T. Grenfell. 2001. Seasonally forced disease dynamics explored as switching between attractors. Physica D 148:317-335.

  169. Michael, E., K. D. Ramaiah, S. L. Hoti, G. Barker, M. R. Paul, J. Yuvaraj, P. K. Das, B. T. Grenfell, and D. A. P. Bundy. 2001. Quantifying mosquito biting patterns on humans by DNA fingerprinting of bloodmeals. Am J Trop Med Hyg 65:722-728.

  170. Chapman, A. P., B. W. Brook, T. H. Clutton-Brock, B. T. Grenfell, and R. Frankham. 2001. Population viability analyses on a cycling population: a cautionary tale. Biol Conserv 97:61-69.

  171. Bjornstad, O. N., and B. T. Grenfell. 2001. Noisy clockwork: Time series analysis of population fluctuations in animals. Science 293:638-643.

  172. Brown, S. P., G. Loot, B. T. Grenfell, and J. F. Guegan. 2001. Host manipulation by Ligula intestinalis: accident or adaptation? Parasitology 123:519-529.

  173. Woolhouse, M., M. Chase-Topping, D. Haydon, J. Friar, L. Matthews, G. Hughes, D. Shaw, J. Wilesmith, A. Donaldson, S. Cornell, M. Keeling, and B. T. Grenfell. 2001. Epidemiology – Foot-and-mouth disease under control in the UK. Nature 411:258-259.

  174. Hudson, P. J., A. Rizzoli, B. T. Grenfell, J. A. P. Heesterbeek, and A. P. Dobson, editors. 2001. Ecology of wildlife diseases. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

  175. Keeling, M. J., M. E. J. Woolhouse, D. J. Shaw, L. Matthews, M. Chase-Topping, D. T. Haydon, S. J. Cornell, J. Kappey, J. Wilesmith, and B. T. Grenfell. 2001. Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science 294:813-817.

  176. Grenfell, B. T. 2001. Dynamics and epidemiological impact of microparasites. Pages 33-52 in Smith, G., W. L. Irving, J. W. McCauley, and D. J. Rowlands, editors. New challenges to health: the threat of virus infection. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

  177. Brown, S. P., and B. T. Grenfell. 2001. An unlikely partnership: parasites, concomitant immunity and host defence. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 268:2543-2549.

  178. Coulson, T., E. A. Catchpole, S. D. Albon, B. J. T. Morgan, J. M. Pemberton, T. H. Clutton-Brock, M. J. Crawley, and B. T. Grenfell. 2001. Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science 292:1528-1531.

    179. 2000

  179. Finkenstadt, B. F., and B. T. Grenfell. 2000. Time series modelling of childhood diseases: a dynamical systems approach. J Roy Stat Soc C-app 49:187-205.

  180. Rohani, P., D. J. D. Earn, and B. T. Grenfell. 2000. Pertussis transmission in England and Wales – Reply. Lancet 355:1553-1554.

  181. Courchamp, F., T. Clutton-Brock, and B. T. Grenfell. 2000. Multipack dynamics and the Allee effect in the African wild dog, Lycaon pictus. Anim Conserv 3:277-285.

  182. Keeling, M. J., and B. T. Grenfell. 2000. Individual-based perspectives on R-0. J Theor Biol 203:51-61.

  183. Courchamp, F., B. T. Grenfell, and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2000. Impact of natural enemies on obligately cooperative breeders. Oikos 91:311-322.

  184. Rohani, P., D. J. D. Earn, and B. T. Grenfell. 2000. Impact of immunisation on pertussis transmission in England and Wales. Lancet 355:285-286.

  185. Grenfell, B. T., B. F. Finkenstadt, K. Wilson, T. N. Coulson, and M. J. Crawley. 2000. Ecology – Nonlinearity and the Moran effect. Nature 406:847-847.

  186. Cornell, S. J., V. S. Isham, and B. T. Grenfell. 2000. Drug-resistant parasites and aggregated infection – early-season dynamics. J Math Biol 41:341-360.

  187. Earn, D. J. D., P. Rohani, B. M. Bolker, and B. T. Grenfell. 2000. A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics. Science 287:667-670.

    188. 1999

  188. Alexander, N. D. E., and B. T. Grenfell. 1999. The effect of pregnancy on Wuchereria bancrofti microfilarial load in humans. Parasitology 119:151-156.

  189. Keeling, M. J., and B. T. Grenfell. 1999. Stochastic dynamics and a power law for measles variability. Philos T Roy Soc B 354:769-776.

  190. Courchamp, F., B. T. Grenfell, and T. Clutton-Brock. 1999. Population dynamics of obligate cooperators. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 266:557-563.

  191. Rohani, P., D. J. D. Earn, and B. T. Grenfell. 1999. Opposite patterns of synchrony in sympatric disease metapopulations. Science 286:968-971.

  192. Kleczkowski, A., and B. T. Grenfell. 1999. Mean-field-type equations for spread of epidemics: the ‘small world’ model. Physica A 274:355-360.

  193. Courchamp, F., T. Clutton-Brock, and B. T. Grenfell. 1999. Inverse density dependence and the Allee effect. Trends Ecol Evol 14:405-410.

  194. Smith, G., B. T. Grenfell, V. Isham, and S. Cornell. 1999. Anthelmintic resistance revisited: under-dosing, chemoprophylactic strategies, and mating probabilities. Int J Parasitol 29:77-91.

    195. 1998

  195. Grenfell, B. T., and B. F. Finkenstadt. 1998. Seasonality, stochasticity and population cycles. Res Popul Ecol 40:141-143.

  196. Rohani, P., D. J. Earn, B. Finkenstadt, and B. T. Grenfell. 1998. Population dynamic interference among childhood diseases. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 265:2033-2041.

  197. Earn, D. J. D., P. Rohani, and B. T. Grenfell. 1998. Persistence, chaos and synchrony in ecology and epidemiology. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 265:7-10.

  198. Swinton, J., J. Harwood, B. T. Grenfell, and C. A. Gilligan. 1998. Persistence thresholds for phocine distemper virus infection in harbour seal Phoca vitulina metapopulations. J Anim Ecol 67:54-68.

  199. Shaw, D. J., B. T. Grenfell, and A. P. Dobson. 1998. Patterns of macroparasite aggregation in wildlife host populations. Parasitology 117:597-610.

  200. Finkenstadt, B., M. J. Keeling, and B. T. Grenfell. 1998. Patterns of density dependence in measles dynamics. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 265:753-762.

  201. Ellner, S. P., B. A. Bailey, G. V. Bobashev, A. R. Gallant, B. T. Grenfell, and D. W. Nychka. 1998. Noise and nonlinearity in measles epidemics: Combining mechanistic and statistical approaches to population modeling. Am Nat 151:425-440.

  202. Grenfell, B. T., K. Wilson, B. F. Finkenstadt, T. N. Coulson, S. Murray, S. D. Albon, J. M. Pemberton, T. H. Clutton-Brock, and M. J. Crawley. 1998. Noise and determinism in synchronized sheep dynamics. Nature 394:674-677.

  203. Michael, E., B. T. Grenfell, V. S. Isham, D. A. Denham, and D. A. P. Bundy. 1998. Modelling variability in lymphatic filariasis: macrofilarial dynamics in the Brugia pahangi cat model. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 265:155-165.

  204. Arneberg, P., A. Skorping, B. T. Grenfell, and A. F. Read. 1998. Host densities as determinants of abundance in parasite communities. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 265:1283-1289.

  205. Finkenstadt, B., and B. T. Grenfell. 1998. Empirical determinants of measles metapopulation dynamics in England and Wales. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 265:211-220.

  206. Keeling, M. J., and B. T. Grenfell. 1998. Effect of variability in infection period on the persistence and spatial spread of infectious diseases. Math Biosci 147:207-226.

  207. Grenfell, B. T., and B. M. Bolker. 1998. Cities and villages: infection hierarchies in a measles metapopulation. Ecol Lett 1:63-70.

    208. 1997

  208. Clutton-Brock, T. H., A. W. Illius, K. Wilson, B. T. Grenfell, A. D. C. MacColl, and S. D. Albon. 1997. Stability and instability in ungulate populations: An empirical analysis. Am Nat 149:195-219.

  209. White, K. A. J., and B. T. Grenfell. 1997. Regulation of complex host dynamics by a macroparasite. J Theor Biol 186:81-91.

  210. Levin, S. A., B. T. Grenfell, A. Hastings, and A. S. Perelson. 1997. Mathematical and computational challenges in population biology and ecosystems science. Science 275:334-343.

  211. Wilson, K., and B. T. Grenfell. 1997. Generalized linear modelling for parasitologists (vol 13, pg 33, pg 1997). Parasitol Today 13:162-162.

  212. Wilson, K., and B. T. Grenfell. 1997. Generalized linear modelling for parasitologists. Parasitol Today 13:33-38.

  213. Keeling, M. J., and B. T. Grenfell. 1997. Disease extinction and community size: Modeling the persistence of measles. Science 275:65-67.

  214. Grenfell, B. T., and J. Harwood. 1997. (Meta)population dynamics of infectious diseases. Trends Ecol Evol 12:395-399.

    215. 1996

  215. Michael, E., D. A. P. Bundy, and B. T. Grenfell. 1996. Re-assessing the global prevalence and distribution of lymphatic filariasis. Parasitology 112:409-428.

  216. Srividya, A., P. K. Das, S. Subramanian, K. D. Ramaiah, B. T. Grenfell, E. Michael, and D. A. P. Bundy. 1996. Past exposure and the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis infection in young children. Epidemiol Infect 117:195-201.

  217. Bolker, B. M., and B. T. Grenfell. 1996. Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics. P Natl Acad Sci Usa 93:12648-12653.

  218. Vanamail, P., K. D. Ramaiah, S. P. Pani, P. K. Das, B. T. Grenfell, and D. A. P. Bundy. 1996. Estimation of the fecund life span of Wuchereria bancrofti in an endemic area. T Roy Soc Trop Med H 90:119-121.

  219. White, K. A. J., B. T. Grenfell, R. J. Hendry, O. Lejeune, and J. D. Murray. 1996. Effect of seasonal host reproduction on host-macroparasite dynamics. Math Biosci 137:79-99.

  220. Wilson, K., B. T. Grenfell, and D. J. Shaw. 1996. Analysis of aggregated parasite distributions: A comparison of methods. Funct Ecol 10:592-601.

    221. 1995

  221. Grenfell, B. T. 1995. Special issue on wildlife diseases – issue editor. Parasitology 111

  222. Bolker, B. M., and B. T. Grenfell. 1995. Space, Persistence and Dynamics of Measles Epidemics. Philos T Roy Soc B 348:309-320.

  223. Grenfell, B. T., B. M. Bolker, and A. Kleczkowski. 1995. Seasonality and Extinction in Chaotic 14 Metapopulations. Proc Roy Soc Lond B Bio 259:97-103.

  224. Grenfell, B. T., K. Wilson, V. S. Isham, H. E. G. Boyd, and K. Dietz. 1995. Modelling patterns of parasite aggregation in natural populations: Trichostrongylid nematode-ruminant interactions as a case study. Parasitology 111:S135-S151.

  225. Grenfell, B. T., and F. M. D. Gulland. 1995. Introduction: Ecological impact of parasitism on wildlife host populations. Parasitology 111:S3-S14.

  226. Das, P. K., S. Subramanian, A. Manoharan, K. D. Ramaiah, P. Vanamail, B. T. Grenfell, D. A. P. Bundy, and E. Michael. 1995. Frequency distribution of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in the vector host in relation to human host: Evidence for density dependence. Acta Trop 60:159-165.

  227. Pani, S. P., J. Yuvaraj, P. Vanamail, V. Dhanda, E. Michael, B. T. Grenfell, and D. A. P. Bundy. 1995. Episodic Adenolymphangitis and Lymphedema in Patients With Bancroftian Filariasis. Trans Roy Soc Trop Med Hyg 89:72-74.

  228. Grenfell, B. T., and A. P. Dobson, editors. 1995. Ecology of infectious diseases in natural populations. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

    229. 1994

  229. Michael, E., B. T. Grenfell, and D. A. P. Bundy. 1994. The association between microfilaremia and disease in lymphatic filariasis. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 256:33-40.

  230. Smith, G., and B. T. Grenfell. 1994. Modeling of parasite populations – gastrointestinal nematode models. Vet Parasitol 54:127-143.

  231. Grenfell, B. T., A. Kleczkowski, S. P. Ellner, and B. M. Bolker. 1994. Measles as a case-study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. Philos T Roy Soc A 348:515-530.

  232. Mollison, D., V. Isham, and B. T. Grenfell. 1994. Epidemics – models and data. J Roy Stat Soc A Statistics 157:115-149.

    233. 1993

  233. Godfray, H. C. J., and B. T. Grenfell. 1993. The continuing quest for chaos. Trends Ecol Evol 8:43-44.

  234. Bolker, B. M., and B. T. Grenfell. 1993. Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics. P R Soc B
    251:75-81.

    235. 1992

  235. Roberts, M. G., and B. T. Grenfell. 1992. The population-dynamics of nematode infections of ruminants – the effect of seasonality in the free-living stages. Ima J Math Appl Med 9:29-41.

  236. Garnett, G. P., and B. T. Grenfell. 1992. The epidemiology of varicella zoster virus-infections – a mathematical model. Epidemiol Infect 108:495-511.

  237. Garnett, G. P., and B. T. Grenfell. 1992. The epidemiology of varicella zoster virus infections – the influence of varicella on the prevalence of herpes-zoster. Epidemiol Infect 108:513-528.

  238. Grenfell, B. T., M. E. Lonergan, and J. Harwood. 1992. Quantitative investigations of the epidemiology of phocine distemper virus (PDV) in european common seal populations. Sci Total Environ 115:15-29.

  239. Grenfell, B. T. 1992. Parasitism and the dynamics of ungulate grazing systems. Am Nat 139:907-929.

  240. Grenfell, B. T., O. F. Price, S. D. Albon, and T. H. Clutton-brock. 1992. Overcompensation and population-cycles in an ungulate. Nature 355:823-826.

  241. Grenfell, B. T., and E. Michael. 1992. Infection and disease in lymphatic filariasis – an epidemiologic approach. Parasitology 104:S81-S90.

  242. Grenfell, B. T. 1992. Chance and chaos in measles dynamics. J Roy Stat Soc B Meth 54:383-398.

    243. 1991

  243. Roberts, M. G., and B. T. Grenfell. 1991. The population-dynamics of nematode infections of ruminants –
    periodic perturbations as a model for management. Ima J Math Appl Med 8:83-93.

  244. Srividya, A., S. P. Pani, P. K. Rajagopalan, D. A. P. Bundy, and B. T. Grenfell. 1991. The dynamics of
    infection and disease in bancroftian filariasis. T Roy Soc Trop Med H 85:255-259.

  245. Bundy, D. A. P., B. T. Grenfell, and P. K. Rajagopalan. 1991. Immunoepidemiology of lymphatic filariasis
    – the relationship between infection and disease. Immunoparasitology Today A71-A75.

  246. Srividya, A., K. Krishnamoorthy, S. Sabesan, K. N. Panicker, B. T. Grenfell, and D. A. P. Bundy. 1991.
    Frequency-distribution of brugia-malayi microfilariae in human-populations. Parasitology 102:207-212.

  247. Pani, S. P., N. Balakrishnan, A. Srividya, D. A. P. Bundy, and B. T. Grenfell. 1991. Clinical epidemiology of bancroftian filariasis – effect of age and gender. T Roy Soc Trop Med H 85:260-264.

  248. Day, K. P., B. T. Grenfell, R. Spark, J. W. Kazura, and M. P. Alpers. 1991. Age specific patterns of change in the dynamics of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in papua-new-guinea. Am J Trop Med Hyg 44:518-527.

  249. Grenfell, B. T., E. Michael, and D. A. Denham. 1991. A model for the dynamics of human lymphatic filariasis. Parasitol Today 7:318-323.

    250. 1990

  250. Guyatt, H. L., D. A. P. Bundy, G. F. Medley, and B. T. Grenfell. 1990. The relationship between the frequency-distribution of Ascaris lumbricoides and the prevalence and intensity of infection in human communities. Parasitology 101:139-143.

  251. Smith, G., and B. T. Grenfell. 1990. Population biology of pseudorabies in swine. Am J Vet Res 51:148- 155.

  252. Grenfell, B. T., and G. Smith. 1990. Mathematical-model for the impact of a pseudorabies epizootic on the productivity of a farrow-to-finish operation. Am J Vet Res 51:156-164.

  253. Harwood, J., and B. T. Grenfell. 1990. Long-term risks of recurrent seal plagues. Mar Pollut Bull 21:284- 287.

  254. Das, P. K., A. Manoharan, A. Srividya, B. T. Grenfell, D. A. P. Bundy, and P. Vanamail. 1990. Frequency- distribution of wuchereria-bancrofti microfilariae in human-populations and its relationships with age and sex. Parasitology 101:429-434.

  255. Grenfell, B. T., P. T. Das, P. K. Rajagopalan, and D. A. P. Bundy. 1990. Frequency-distribution of lymphatic filariasis microfilariae in human-populations – population processes and statistical estimation. Parasitology 101:417-427.

  256. Sugihara, G., B. T. Grenfell, and R. M. May. 1990. Distinguishing error from chaos in ecological time- series. Philos T Roy Soc B 330:235-251.

  257. Grenfell, B. T. 1990. Correction. Am J Vet Res 51:313-313.

    258. 1989

  258. Grenfell, B. T., and R. M. Anderson. 1989. Pertussis in england and wales – an investigation of
    transmission dynamics and control by mass vaccination. P Roy Soc Lond B Bio 236:213-252.

  259. Vanamail, P., S. Subramanian, P. K. Das, S. P. Pani, P. K. Rajagopalan, D. A. P. Bundy, and B. T. Grenfell. 1989. Estimation of age-specific rates of acquisition and loss of Wuchereria bancrofti infection. T Roy Soc Trop Med H 83:689-693.

    260. 1988

  260. Grenfell, B. T. 1988. Gastrointestinal nematode parasites and the stability and productivity of intensive ruminant grazing systems. Philos T Roy Soc B 321:541-563.

    261. 1987

  261. Grenfell, B. T., G. Smith, and R. M. Anderson. 1987. The regulation of ostertagia-ostertagi populations in calves – the effect of past and current experience of infection on proportional establishment and parasite survival. Parasitology 95:363-372.

  262. Smith, G., B. T. Grenfell, and R. M. Anderson. 1987. The regulation of ostertagia-ostertagi populations in calves – density-dependent control of fecundity. Parasitology 95:373-388.

  263. Anderson, R. M., J. A. Crombie, and B. T. Grenfell. 1987. The epidemiology of mumps in the uk – a preliminary-study of virus transmission, herd-immunity and the potential impact of immunization. Epidemiol Infect 99:65-84.

  264. Smith, G., B. T. Grenfell, R. M. Anderson, and J. Beddington. 1987. Population biology of ostertagia- ostertagi and anthelmintic strategies against ostertagiasis in calves. Parasitology 95:407-420.

  265. Grenfell, B. T., G. Smith, and R. M. Anderson. 1987. A mathematical-model of the population biology of ostertagia-ostertagi in calves and yearlings. Parasitology 95:389-406.

    266. 1986

  266. Smith, G., B. T. Grenfell, and R. M. Anderson. 1986. The development and mortality of the non-infective free-living stages of ostertagia-ostertagi in the field and in laboratory culture. Parasitology 92:471-482.

  267. Anderson, R. M., and B. T. Grenfell. 1986. Quantitative investigations of different vaccination policies for the control of congenital-rubella syndrome (crs) in the united-kingdom. J Hyg-cambridge 96:305-333.

  268. Grenfell, B. T., G. Smith, and R. M. Anderson. 1986. Maximum-likelihood-estimates of the mortality and 16
    migration rates of the infective larvae of ostertagia-ostertagi and cooperia-oncophora. Parasitology 92:643- 652.

    269. 1985 and earlier

  269. Grenfell, B. T., and R. M. Anderson. 1985. The estimation of age-related rates of infection from case notifications and serological data. J Hyg-cambridge 95:419-436.

  270. Anderson, R. M., and B. T. Grenfell. 1985. Control of congenital-rubella syndrome by mass vaccination. Lancet 2:827-828.

  271. Smith, G., B. T. Grenfell, and D. Kerboeuf. 1984. The population-dynamics of Heligmosomoides polygyrus (nematospiroides-dubius) in mice – the consequences of parasite-induced host mortality and the effect of the host response on parasite survival and fecundity. Parasitology 89:R56-R56.

  272. Smith, G., and B. T. Grenfell. 1984. The influence of water temperature and ph on the survival of Fasciola hepatica miracidia. Parasitology 88:97-104.

  273. Anderson, R. M., B. T. Grenfell, and R. M. May. 1984. Oscillatory fluctuations in the incidence of infectious-disease and the impact of vaccination – time-series analysis. J Hyg-cambridge 93:587-608.

  274. Grenfell, B. T., and G. Smith. 1984. Modeling the epidemiology of ostertagiasis in 1st year calves – a comparison of the short and long-term effects of different control strategies. Parasitology 89:R56-R56.

  275. Grenfell, B. T., and G. Smith. 1983. The population biology of Ostertagia-ostertagi – an economically important parasite of 1st-year grazing calves. Parasitology 87:R42-R42.

  276. Grenfell, B. T., and G. Smith. 1983. Population biology and control of ostertagiasis in first year grazing calves. Proc. Soc. Vet. Epid. Prevent. Medicine 2:54-62.

  277. Grenfell, B. T., and J. R. Beddington. 1981. A new population model and assessment technique based on proportional maturity and recruitment, with application to the minke whales of the Southern Hemisphere. Report of the International Whaling Commission 31:233-239.

  278. Tillman, M. F., and B. T. Grenfell. 1980. Estimates of abundance for the Western North Pacific stock of Bryde’s whales. Report of the International Whaling Commission 30:369-373.

  279. Beddington, J. R., and B. T. Grenfell. 1979. Risk and stability in whale harvesting. Report of the International Whaling Commission 29:171-173.

  280. Holt, S. J., and B. T. Grenfell. 1979. Note on Southern Hemisphere minke whale stocks and quotas. Report of the International Whaling Commission 29:81-83.