Dynamics of measles epidemics: Scaling noise, determinism, and predictability with the TSIR model.

Grenfell, B. T., O. N. Bjornstad, and B. F. Finkenstadt. 2002. Dynamics of measles epidemics: Scaling noise, determinism, and predictability with the TSIR model. Ecol Monogr 72:185-202.